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过去我们研究市场，靠的是K线、宏观、链上、资金流。但有一个维度，一直被大多数人忽略：市场对未来事件的概率判断。它不告诉你涨还是跌，它告诉你：市场现在正在相信什么，以及这个预期有没有被提前定价。这篇文章我拆解了预测市场的底层逻辑，为什么交易员需要它，以及我为什么开始持续关注ForeGate这个平台。如果你也关注BTC、宏观、AI和全球科技事件，这篇值得看完👇(小龙先生)
BTC-ahr999囤币指数升至0.5367，为近2个月以来新高
疑似某比特币矿工近两日向Binance存入2802枚比特币
疑似矿工地址向币安充值 2802 枚 BTC，近 20 天累计充值 6494 枚 BTC
Ledger 发布安全提醒，BIP-110 分叉方案缺乏重放保护
Ledger：BIP-110缺乏重放保护，转移或出售分叉币或危及主链资产
一个比特币安全“红队”利用多款 AI 模型对约 150 个比特币相关代码库进行审计，目前已披露十余个漏洞，涉及钱包、密码学库及基础设施等项目。团队成员称，目前平均每人每小时可发现约一个严重漏洞，过去 12 小时已向多个项目提交安全报告，但尚未公开具体受影响项目。该团队还在开发开源 AI 安全审计平台，目前相关扫描成本约为每天 1 万美元。近期 Coldcard 和 Boltz 等安全事件也显示，AI 正同时被安全研究人员和攻击者用于更快发现软件漏洞。 https://wublock123.com/news
🚨Yüksek CDD verileri geliyor. ✍️ Henüz spot borsalara normalin dışında çok çok yüksek #Bitcoin girişleri olmadı ama çok fazla eski BTC hareketi var, ortalama 9-10 bin adet BTC ‘den bahsediyorum. Bu Bitcoinler spota girerse düşüş türeve girerse yüksek vola
Bitcoin: Global M2 jumps $1 trillion, yet BTC could still fall – Why? (AMBCrypto)
Oracle's 5-year CDS has surged +𝟳𝟬𝗯𝗽𝘀 YTD to a record ~215bps — the largest increase among Big Tech peers. Broadcom (+48bps), Meta (+39bps), and Nvidia (+32bps) all show similar credit deterioration. The stress coincides with Big Tech issuing ~$𝟮𝟬𝟬𝗕 in co
BTC Bitcoin has broken the local downtrend. Now I want $65.5K-$65.7K. Simple. $64.2K-$64.4K is the level bulls need to protect. Hold it and I think the liquidity above gets taken. Lose it and I'm wrong. (CryptoReviewing)
卧槽，这个线程算是吧Coldcard的漏洞分析明白了。原来是 Coinkite CTO Peter Gray（@DocHex）用假名@switck写了含漏洞的 libngu 库。 2020.10 创建库 2021.1 写入关键错误代码 2021.3 正式集成进固件 2026.7.30 被大规模利用，盗走超1亿美元BTC(比特币橙子Trader)
BitMEX 从冷钱包向热钱包转移 367.65 枚 BTC
People are getting increasingly bullish on #BTC Meanwhile Bitcoin is doing exactly what it tends to do at this moment in the cycle „It's likely price will try to maintain these highs in the early stages of August but history suggests price could rollover
BTC If we respect below the current weekly high, we will retest the monthly open at 62.7K. On the flip side, if we are able to regain 65.3K with force, a move to 66.9K becomes quite likely. So overall, nothing too interesting given we have been in the sam
⚡️HUGE: Over 20,000,000 Bitcoin have now been mined, making up 95% of all the BTC that will ever exist. (Coin Bureau)
we studied 3+ years of BTC perps and 8.5M liquidation events. takeaway: cascades often form around visible structural conditions, not pure randomness.(TheKingfisher)
🐋 WHALE WATCH : $2.5 TRILLION added to U.S. stocks in just 7 days. S&P 500 sitting at record highs with a +3.6% week. The wealth effect is in full swing and risk appetite is officially back. Heres how this capital trickles down: Big Cap TradFi S&P Nasdaq
为什么EIP-8363在以太坊社区吵翻天？很重要的原因之一是，如果它通过了，以太坊和eth的未来叙事根基要被釜底抽薪掉：一是，废掉驱动DeFi 的基础费率；二是，机构原来选择ETH的理由将极大降低；三是，ETH失去生产性资产的最大优势，尤其是相对于BTC的少有特色；更重要的是，这个EIP还不能真正解决问题，纯纯是多此一举。(蓝狐)
吴说获悉，Fractal 创始人 Lorenzo 发文宣布，将于预计 9 月 9 日左右的首次减半时永久销毁总计 4,101,541 枚 FB，其中包括 FIP-101 剩余奖励、公开测试未分发奖励及第二年生态分配。明日将发布 FIP-102 提案草案，拟将减半后的 50% 代币发行量重新分配以支持比特币主网上原生 FB 发行，使 Fractal 区块奖励降至 6.25 枚 FB 且不增加总供应量，FIP-103 则将定义具体分发机制。此外，UniSat 计划在减半后连续五个月每月从公开市场购入 20 万

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